A couple of weeks ago, I wrote here that crude was stuck in a range and would probably remain so until something drastic happened to change fundamental conditions and expectations. I also said that until that came, I would be trading with a long bias, which worked out pretty well. Over the ensuing week, CL gained around 8%...
This week, however, has been a different story. It started out okay, with CL bouncing off a lower opening to consolidate those gains, but that all changed on Tuesday, when oil dropped on a report of progress with a proposed piece of legislation in the US Congress. That legislation, known as NOPEC, would make OPEC subject to American anti-trust law, raising the prospect of the cartel being sued for propping up oil prices.
As appealing as that is to someone who believes in the power of free markets, the legislation itself means very little. US courts would have no power to enforce any ruling against an international organization like OPEC so, like a lot of things political, this is about pandering, and empty gestures more than it is anything powerful, or useful. Still, there are reasons to believe that an increased chance of NOPEC passing, along with the Biden administration’s focus on climate change and green energy this week, could be the kind of game-changer that I talked about two weeks ago.
As I said, NOPEC doesn’t pose any real, long-term threat to OPEC, but given current circumstances, it could prove to be the…
